Wellbore Genius

Induced-seismicity forecaster

Phase F · Dieterich 1994

Translate a pore-pressure ramp into a Coulomb-stress-driven seismicity-rate response with a Traffic-Light Protocol classifier. Optionally overlay a USGS earthquake catalog (download CSV from earthquake.usgs.gov with time & mag columns).

Read the manual

Forecast summary

TLP · GREEN

Voice readouts

Peak R/r_bg

1.00

Expected events

31659612.8

Relaxation t_a

5787.0 d

Samples

200

Pump-rate advisory

HOLD

TLP GREEN — peak R/r_bg 1.00× below 2× yellow threshold; continue.

Current rate [bpm]

Recommended rate

80.0 bpm

Applied cut

0.0 bpm

Expected events

31659612.8

Advisory only — operator confirms before pump-control bus accepts.

Manual override

Logs operator's chosen rate + reason; tiles re-run instantly.

From

Override rate [bpm]

Reason (logged)

No overrides yet. Entries here form the audit trail for post-job review.

TLP thresholds

Default

Preset

Yellow [R/r_bg]

Amber [R/r_bg]

Red [R/r_bg]

Generic rate-ratio TLP. Matches forecaster defaults. Switch to Custom to override per-band rate-ratio cutoffs. Changes apply live and persist locally.

Fault rate-and-state stability

RED · unstable

Total σ_n [psi]

Patch half-length L [ft]

Shear modulus G [psi]

σ_eff [psi]

4500

k/k_crit

0.00

L_c [ft]

6.3

Patch L [ft]

500.0

Unstable AND patch ≥ nucleation length L_c ≈ 6.3 ft — runaway slip can nucleate. Peak Δp from the ramp (500 psi) is subtracted from total σ_n to get σ_eff.

Pore-pressure Δp [psi] vs day

0 dpeak 500 psi365 d

Seismicity rate ratio R/r_bg vs day

0 dpeak 1.00×365 d

Observed catalog

Parsed events

In window (M ≥ 1.5)

Forecast ∫R dt

31659612.8

Obs / forecast

0.00

Regulator copy-paste templates

OK CC · KS CC · TX RRC

Regulator

Operator

Well API / UWI

Field / pad

Oklahoma Corporation Commission — Oil & Gas Conservation Division

Contact: https://oklahoma.gov/occ/divisions/oil-gas.html

Subject

Body

Report timestamp (UTC): 2026-07-29T01:20:25.474Z
Operator: Acme Energy
Well API/UWI: 35-093-12345
Field / pad: South Cana 4H

Traffic-Light Protocol level: GREEN — INFORMATIONAL — no escalation
Peak seismicity-rate ratio R/r_bg (Dieterich 1994 forecaster): 1.00×
Largest observed event in monitoring window: M — at — from injection point.

Operational response:
  • Pump rate at trigger: 80.0 bpm
  • Applied rate after response: 80.0 bpm
  • Operator reason: TLP GREEN — peak R/r_bg 1.00× below 2× yellow threshold; continue.

Per OK CC Underground Injection Control rules and the OGCD induced-seismicity protocol, this notification is provided within the 24-hour window following a TLP escalation. Mitigation steps follow the published yellow-light / red-light matrix. Full pump-schedule CSV and pore-pressure history available on request.

Generated from the current TLP level, advisory, and most-recent manual-override reason. Copy/paste only — nothing is auto-sent to any regulator.

TLP operator-action audit log

0 entries

0 transitions

Actor (initials / name)

Action kind

Rationale

Time	Level	Kind	Actor	Rationale
No entries yet — TLP transitions auto-log here, or log a manual action above.

Append-only TLP audit trail (capped 500 entries, FIFO). Persisted to localStorage; copy/paste from the CSV export into the regulator filing. TLP transitions are auto-logged; rate-cuts, shut-ins, monitoring changes and regulator notifications are logged manually.

Method: Dieterich 1994 (constitutive law for earthquake nucleation), Terzaghi effective stress mapping dp/dt → Δσ_C, backward-Euler on γ for unconditional stability. Advisory only — calibrate against site-specific TexNet/OK-CC bands before regulatory use.