Downhole Ballistics Simulator

Performance modeling

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Wellbore Environment

12000ft
11.50ppg
70°F
1.50°F/1000ft
500psi
0psi

Formulation

CompositionΣ 100.0%
70%
30%
Job Status
Optimal
Effective Performance
105.7%
Driver unit display
Switch hydrostatic, temperature, pressure, depth, and mud-weight values.
Trace
Hydrostatic
7176psi
BHP
7799psi
BHT
88°F
Gradient
0.598psi/ft
TVD
12000ft
Mud Weight
11.50ppg
Performance
106%
P10 106 · P90 106
Energy Density
6.28MJ/kg
Gas Yield
21.2mol/kg
Ignition Margin
628°F
Confinement Boost
+5.7%
Coupled solver
Converged in 1 iter · |Δ| = 0.037%
Static BHP
7,676psi
Local BHP (coupled)
7,799psi
Δp from gas
+123psi (+1.6%)
Iteration historyBHP (psi) · perf (%)
iter 0iter 1

Solves BHP_local = BHP_static + Δp_gas(perf) as a fixed point: gas yield raises local pressure → confinement boost rises → burn completeness rises → more gas. Damped relaxation (α = 0.6), tol 0.05%.

Monte Carlo uncertainty
N = 400 · σ-spread 0.3%
Performance
106%
[106 – 106]
Energy
6.26MJ/kg
[5.79 – 6.69]
Gas yield
21.2mol/kg
[20.4 – 21.9]
Performance distributionP10 106 · P50 106 · P90 106
Driver insight

Mud weight drives 70% of variance and lifts performance — tightening σ from ±4.0% to ±2.0% would roughly halve the spread.

Variance contribution (correlation tornado)Pearson r vs. performance
Mud weight
+0.8370%
flour %
-0.4824%
Surface pressure
+0.183%
sodium_nitrate %
+0.163%
Geo gradient
+0.010%
Surface temp
-0.000%

Bars are Pearson r between each perturbed input and resulting performance. Right-side green = increasing the input lifts performance. Last column = r² share of explained variance.

Samples seeded Gaussian perturbations on mud weight, geothermal gradient, surface pressure/temp, and per-component mass fractions. Tune σ values above to stress-test assumptions; reports P10/P50/P90 percentiles.

Wellbore Schematic

TVD 12000 ft
TEMP °FPRESS psi0ft3000ft6000ft9000ft12000ftsurfaceCHARGE @ 12000ft88°F BHT7676 psi BHP
geo T
flowing T
pressure
BH ΔT −1°F · pumping

Cooling at TD lowers BHT below auto-ignition margin → review charge performance derating. L_R = 5511 ft.

Performance vs Depth

P10–P90 Performance BHT
@ TVD
105.7%
P10–P90 105.6–105.8
Avg spread
±0.1%
Δ 0.2 pp across depth
Tightest
Δ 0.2
@ 2,667 ft
Widest
Δ 0.3
@ 667 ft

▲ Highest σ-gradient: 0.8 %/kft between 667–1,333 ft — design margins are most actionable here.

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Disclaimer: First-order engineering approximations for pre-job screening only. Hydrostatic uses 0.052 × MW × TVD. Performance combines weighted heat-of-reaction, gas yield, ignition margin, thermal derating above binder onset, and log-pressure confinement boost. Validate against lab burn data and site-specific tests before field deployment.