DFIT — measured public falloffs
Measured falloffs from Utah FORGE 16B, EGS Collab 4100L and Bedretto, run blind through the in-app DFIT ISIP and closure picks. Permeability not scored.
Aggregate metrics
| Metric | n | MAE | RMSE | MAPE | Bias | P10/P50/P90 rel | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| isipPsi [psi] | 20 | 44.154 | 83.481 | 1.3% | -17.865 | 0.1 / 0.6 / 2.5% | A |
| closurePsi [psi] | 11 | 207.849 | 286.976 | 15.4% | 101.886 | 1.7 / 4.3 / 39.8% | B |
Permeability is not scored: none of these sources publishes a falloff permeability, and the records end before after-closure radial flow.
Per-case observed vs modeled
| Case | Metric | Observed | Modeled | Residual | Rel err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| forge-16b/MF-1-c1 | isipPsi [psi] | 4536.000 | 4528.418 | -7.582 | 0.2% |
| forge-16b/MF-1-c2 | isipPsi [psi] | 4421.000 | 4393.689 | -27.311 | 0.6% |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c1 | isipPsi [psi] | 3312.000 | 3312.308 | 0.308 | 0.0% |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c1 | closurePsi [psi] | 3270.000 | 3128.500 | -141.500 | 4.3% |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c2 | isipPsi [psi] | 3249.000 | 3254.609 | 5.609 | 0.2% |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c2 | closurePsi [psi] | 3179.000 | 3124.600 | -54.400 | 1.7% |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c3 | isipPsi [psi] | 3327.000 | 3329.091 | 2.091 | 0.1% |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c3 | closurePsi [psi] | 3312.000 | 3244.300 | -67.700 | 2.0% |
| forge-16b/MF-4-c1 | isipPsi [psi] | 3328.000 | 2995.400 | -332.600 | 10.0% |
| forge-16b/MF-4-c2 | isipPsi [psi] | 3597.000 | 3564.853 | -32.147 | 0.9% |
| forge-16b/MF-4-c2 | closurePsi [psi] | 2972.000 | 2899.800 | -72.200 | 2.4% |
| forge-16b/MF-4-c3 | isipPsi [psi] | 3588.000 | 3584.197 | -3.803 | 0.1% |
| forge-16b/MF-4-c3 | closurePsi [psi] | 2967.000 | 2774.300 | -192.700 | 6.5% |
| forge-16b/MF-6-c1 | isipPsi [psi] | 3476.000 | 3464.757 | -11.243 | 0.3% |
| forge-16b/MF-6-c1 | closurePsi [psi] | 3456.000 | 3401.700 | -54.300 | 1.6% |
| forge-16b/MF-6-c3 | isipPsi [psi] | 3418.000 | 3403.704 | -14.296 | 0.4% |
| collab-4100/frac-1 | isipPsi [psi] | 3364.882 | 3442.937 | 78.056 | 2.3% |
| collab-4100/frac-2 | isipPsi [psi] | 3176.332 | 3187.576 | 11.244 | 0.4% |
| collab-4100/frac-3 | isipPsi [psi] | 3379.385 | 3404.285 | 24.900 | 0.7% |
| collab-4100/frac-4 | isipPsi [psi] | 3248.851 | 3330.220 | 81.369 | 2.5% |
| collab-4100/frac-5 | isipPsi [psi] | 3016.790 | 2999.291 | -17.500 | 0.6% |
| collab-4100/frac-6 | isipPsi [psi] | 3161.828 | 3084.357 | -77.472 | 2.5% |
| collab-4100/frac-7 | isipPsi [psi] | 2175.570 | 2137.178 | -38.392 | 1.8% |
| collab-4100/frac-8 | isipPsi [psi] | 2755.722 | 2697.873 | -57.849 | 2.1% |
| collab-4100/frac-9 | isipPsi [psi] | 3988.545 | 4008.390 | 19.845 | 0.5% |
| collab-4100/frac-10 | isipPsi [psi] | 4293.125 | 4332.598 | 39.473 | 0.9% |
| bedretto/sb1-17.5 | closurePsi [psi] | 1102.289 | 1145.888 | 43.599 | 4.0% |
| bedretto/sb1-24.0 | closurePsi [psi] | 942.747 | 1162.628 | 219.881 | 23.3% |
| bedretto/sb2-12.5 | closurePsi [psi] | 1203.815 | 1682.774 | 478.958 | 39.8% |
| bedretto/sb2-15.5 | closurePsi [psi] | 1058.777 | 1325.398 | 266.620 | 25.2% |
| bedretto/sb2-17.5 | closurePsi [psi] | 1189.312 | 1883.798 | 694.486 | 58.4% |
Benchmark inputs (per case)
| Case | Input | Value |
|---|---|---|
| forge-16b/MF-1-c1 | source | forge-16b |
| forge-16b/MF-1-c1 | sourceCaseId | MF-1-c1 |
| forge-16b/MF-1-c2 | source | forge-16b |
| forge-16b/MF-1-c2 | sourceCaseId | MF-1-c2 |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c1 | source | forge-16b |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c1 | sourceCaseId | MF-2-c1 |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c2 | source | forge-16b |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c2 | sourceCaseId | MF-2-c2 |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c3 | source | forge-16b |
| forge-16b/MF-2-c3 | sourceCaseId | MF-2-c3 |
| forge-16b/MF-4-c1 | source | forge-16b |
| forge-16b/MF-4-c1 | sourceCaseId | MF-4-c1 |
| forge-16b/MF-4-c2 | source | forge-16b |
| forge-16b/MF-4-c2 | sourceCaseId | MF-4-c2 |
| forge-16b/MF-4-c3 | source | forge-16b |
| forge-16b/MF-4-c3 | sourceCaseId | MF-4-c3 |
| forge-16b/MF-6-c1 | source | forge-16b |
| forge-16b/MF-6-c1 | sourceCaseId | MF-6-c1 |
| forge-16b/MF-6-c3 | source | forge-16b |
| forge-16b/MF-6-c3 | sourceCaseId | MF-6-c3 |
| collab-4100/frac-1 | source | collab-4100 |
| collab-4100/frac-1 | sourceCaseId | frac-1 |
| collab-4100/frac-2 | source | collab-4100 |
| collab-4100/frac-2 | sourceCaseId | frac-2 |
| collab-4100/frac-3 | source | collab-4100 |
| collab-4100/frac-3 | sourceCaseId | frac-3 |
| collab-4100/frac-4 | source | collab-4100 |
| collab-4100/frac-4 | sourceCaseId | frac-4 |
| collab-4100/frac-5 | source | collab-4100 |
| collab-4100/frac-5 | sourceCaseId | frac-5 |
| collab-4100/frac-6 | source | collab-4100 |
| collab-4100/frac-6 | sourceCaseId | frac-6 |
| collab-4100/frac-7 | source | collab-4100 |
| collab-4100/frac-7 | sourceCaseId | frac-7 |
| collab-4100/frac-8 | source | collab-4100 |
| collab-4100/frac-8 | sourceCaseId | frac-8 |
| collab-4100/frac-9 | source | collab-4100 |
| collab-4100/frac-9 | sourceCaseId | frac-9 |
| collab-4100/frac-10 | source | collab-4100 |
| collab-4100/frac-10 | sourceCaseId | frac-10 |
| bedretto/sb1-17.5 | source | bedretto |
| bedretto/sb1-17.5 | sourceCaseId | sb1-17.5 |
| bedretto/sb1-24.0 | source | bedretto |
| bedretto/sb1-24.0 | sourceCaseId | sb1-24.0 |
| bedretto/sb2-12.5 | source | bedretto |
| bedretto/sb2-12.5 | sourceCaseId | sb2-12.5 |
| bedretto/sb2-15.5 | source | bedretto |
| bedretto/sb2-15.5 | sourceCaseId | sb2-15.5 |
| bedretto/sb2-17.5 | source | bedretto |
| bedretto/sb2-17.5 | sourceCaseId | sb2-17.5 |
Modeling assumptions
Measured falloffs run blind through the in-app DFIT analysis: ISIP by back-extrapolation at shut-in, closure by G-function tangent departure (FORGE) or the source fixture's tangent rule (Bedretto).
Assumed
- Each case uses its source fixture's own blind analysis unchanged; no settings tuned to the published picks.
- Observed picks copied verbatim from the FORGE 16B, EGS Collab 4100L and Bedretto fixtures.
- Bedretto's published tangent closure is compared as closure; breakdown is not a falloff quantity and is left out.
Out of scope
- Permeability — no source publishes a falloff permeability and the records end before after-closure radial flow
- Pore pressure — not published for these tests
Scoring breakdown
Grade bands (worst-metric rollup)
A · MAPE ≤ 10%
B · MAPE ≤ 20%
C · MAPE ≤ 35%
D · MAPE > 35%
| Metric | MAPE | Grade | Drives rollup? |
|---|---|---|---|
| isipPsi | 1.3% | A | no |
| closurePsi | 15.4% | B | yes (worst) |
Dataset rollup grade:
B
— the worst per-metric grade sets the card chip.Citations
Kelley, M. et al. (Battelle), Utah FORGE Project 2439 Milestone 3.4 – In-Situ Stress Measurement Report, Table 3-8 (DOE GDR 1596).
DOI / ref:
https://gdr.openei.org/files/1596/Battelle-2-2439-AF1_Milestone%203.4%20%28In-Situ%20Stress%20Measurement%29%20Report.pdfUtah FORGE 16B(78)-32 straddle-packer mini-frac LAS data, DOE Geothermal Data Repository 1596.
DOI / ref:
https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/1596Ingraham, M.D. et al. (2019), Analysis of hydraulic fractures performed on the 4100 level at the Sanford Underground Research Facility, AGU Fall Meeting H11K-1642 (SAND2019-14551 C).
DOI / ref:
—EGS Collab 4100L stress-measurement raw data and metadata key, August 2019.
DOI / ref:
—BedrettoLab stress-borehole (SB) mini-frac campaign, raw FastLogger pressure/flow records, December 2018.
DOI / ref:
—SB_MiniFrac_ResultsDataAnalysis v2 (25.10.2021): stress magnitudes and picked pressure parameters for all vertical SB boreholes.
DOI / ref:
—SB_MiniFrac_Injection_Protocols v3: per-interval injection protocols.
DOI / ref:
—Public research data; see each source's license.
Compiled: 2026-10-05