Utah FORGE 16A(78)-32 commercial stimulation, Stages 2–3 (measured)
Measured 1 s treating pressure and rate from a 35 bpm stimulation of the FORGE horizontal injector, run blind through the in-app breakdown pick and ISIP kernel, compared with the published stage picks.
Aggregate metrics
| Metric | n | MAE | RMSE | MAPE | Bias | P10/P50/P90 rel | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| breakdownPsi [psi] | 2 | 22.650 | 31.680 | 0.3% | -22.150 | 0.1 / 0.3 / 0.6% | A |
| isipPsi [psi] | 2 | 51.021 | 56.061 | 1.4% | 23.233 | 0.8 / 1.4 / 1.9% | A |
Per-case observed vs modeled
| Case | Metric | Observed | Modeled | Residual | Rel err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stage2 | breakdownPsi [psi] | 6817.000 | 6772.200 | -44.800 | 0.7% |
| stage2 | isipPsi [psi] | 3918.000 | 3890.213 | -27.787 | 0.7% |
| stage3 | breakdownPsi [psi] | 6659.000 | 6659.500 | 0.500 | 0.0% |
| stage3 | isipPsi [psi] | 3660.000 | 3734.254 | 74.254 | 2.0% |
Benchmark inputs (per case)
| Case | Input | Value |
|---|---|---|
| stage2 | stage | 2 |
| stage3 | stage | 3 |
Scoring breakdown
Grade bands (worst-metric rollup)
A · MAPE ≤ 10%
B · MAPE ≤ 20%
C · MAPE ≤ 35%
D · MAPE > 35%
| Metric | MAPE | Grade | Drives rollup? |
|---|---|---|---|
| breakdownPsi | 0.3% | A | yes (worst) |
| isipPsi | 1.4% | A | yes (worst) |
Dataset rollup grade:
A
— the worst per-metric grade sets the card chip.Citations
Utah FORGE: Well 16A(78)-32 Stimulation Data – April 2022, OpenEI Geothermal Data Repository submission 1379 (Stage 2/3 records, treatment synopses, Stratagen QC workbook).
DOI / ref:
https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/1379U.S. DOE public data (Utah FORGE, OpenEI GDR).
Compiled: 2026-10-02